25.2 million people expected to live with Parkinson’s disease by 2050

A new modelling study published in the British Medical Journal projects a significant increase in the prevalence of Parkinson’s disease (PD) by 2050. The number of people living with PD worldwide is expected to more than double, reaching approximately 25.2 million for all ages and both sexes combined – an increase of 112% from 2021. The number of cases is estimated at 15.6 million in 2030 and 20.4 million in 2040.

This latest modelling study draws on data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study to predict the prevalence of Parkinson’s in 195 countries and territories from 2022 to 2050.

Projected age-standardized prevalence (per 100,000) of PD in 2050, by country and territory for both sexes combined. Source: BMJ 2025;388:e080952

The prevalence of PD was forecasted to be 267 cases per 100,000 in 2050, indicating a significant increase of 76% from 2021, whereas the age-standardized prevalence was predicted to be 216 per 100,000, with an increase of 55% from 2021.

Countries with the highest number of Parkinson’s disease cases

The study indicates that PD will increase in all countries across the world, but countries with a middle socio-demographic index and countries with a large ageing population will see the biggest number of cases.

The largest number of PD cases was projected to be in East Asia (10.9 million) in 2050, indicating the significant impact of risk factors on the prevalence of the disease in the region. The most significant increase in the number of PD cases was estimated to occur in western Sub-Saharan Africa (292%) from 2021 to 2050, primarily due to the change in population ageing, along with the largest contribution of population growth. The smallest increases in prevalent cases were projected in central Europe (28%) and eastern Europe (28%), attributable to negative population growth.

Estimated top 10 countries with the highest number of PD cases in 1990, 2021, 2030, 2040, and 2050 globally. Corresponding boxes present the number of PD cases in this country and their proportion among global PD patients, as well as the global count. Source: BMJ 2025;388:e080952

By 2050, China is expected to have the highest number of PD cases worldwide (10.5 million), followed by India (2.8 million) and the US (0.9 million). In Europe, Germany is expected to feature the highest number of PD cases (574,000), followed by France (356,000), Spain (351,000), and the UK (307,000).

Contributing factors to the growth in Parkinson’s disease cases

Population ageing (89%) was predicted to be the primary contributor to the growth in cases from 2021 to 2050, followed by population growth (20%) and changes in prevalence (3%). But also factors such as physical activity and smoking are highlighted to have an important role in PD prevalence. The study also noted that risk factors for PD, such as environmental agents, climate change, unhealthy lifestyle, metabolic diseases, and dietary factors, are on the rise in the course of industrialization and urbanization.

The most significant increases in PD cases from 2021 to 2050 are expected among individuals aged 80 years and older, with a projected rise of 196% in this age group globally.

Independent of age, the prevalence of PD is projected to be higher in men than in women.

According to the study's authors, PD will have become a greater public health challenge for patients, their families, caregivers, communities, and society by 2050. They suggest that the study could aid in promoting health research, informing policy decisions, and allocating resources.

This study is an important reminder that PD is growing at an alarming rate. Already now, PD puts an increased strain on healthcare systems. Given the latest projections, the way PD is managed and treated needs to fundamentally change to be able to guarantee high-quality care for patients in the future.

Source:

Su D, Cui Y, He C, Yin P, Bai R, Zhu J et al. Projections for prevalence of Parkinson’s disease and its driving factors in 195 countries and territories to 2050: modelling study of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 BMJ 2025; 388:e080952 doi:10.1136/bmj-2024-080952